IvyArcIvyArc
3

Outer Edge

5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 48

Ffos Las · Bridge, Family Run And Proud Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Popped up with a win (off higher marks) in each of the previous 2 years. Finished 1¼ lengths behind next-time-out winner Macarone in a 6f course handicap last month. Backed that up with close fourth in blanket finish at Bath (5f, good to soft) subsequently. Should be thereabouts.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 59 · 5f21y Std 129 · beat its mark16/06/2025 · OR 59 par16/066OR 596 @ Wolverhampton 02/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 58 · 6f21y Std 134 · beat its mark02/09/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Wolverhampton 11/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 56 · 5f21y Std 131 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 56 par11/106OR 566 @ Wolverhampton 27/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 53 · 6f12y GF 123 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 53 par23/056OR 536 @ Ffos Las 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 52 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 52 par5 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 50 · 6f16y GF 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 50 par16/075OR 506 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 48 · 6f Gd 135 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 47 · 5f10y GS 127 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 47 par13/096OR 47projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath64th4th0
2026-08-27Ffos Las63rd3rd0
2026-07-16Chepstow55th4th+1
2026-06-29Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-05-23Windsor65th5th0
2025-10-27Wolverhampton64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0627/1016/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/06/20254th5/174%63%-0.11
02/09/20258th14/126%22%-0.04
11/10/20254th4/179%67%-0.12
27/10/20254th13/266%63%-0.03
23/05/20265th28/10%69%+0.69
29/06/20264th9/276%40%-0.36
16/07/20265th14/126%33%+0.07
27/08/20263rd10/382%60%-0.22
13/09/20264th7/282%75%-0.07