IvyArcIvyArc
5

Snow Day

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 45

Ffos Las · Bridge, Family Run And Proud Handicap · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced 3-y-o who has achieved little at long odds in 6f/7f races to date. Hard to be confident of better dropped to the minimum trip here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength5%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 9.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 26/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 7f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS26/0845 @ Wolverhampton 20/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 7f36y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/0955 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 7f Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS6/0556 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 45 · 5f160y Gd 121 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 45 par5/066OR 456 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 35 · 7f80y Goo 126 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 35 par30/066OR 356 @ Brighton 07/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 45 · 6f210y Goo 121 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 45 par7/086OR 456 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 45 · 7f16y Goo 121 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 45 par31/086OR 45projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Chepstow69th9th0
2026-08-07Brighton66th6th0
2026-06-30Ffos Las66th6th0
2026-06-05Bath68th8th0
2026-05-06Kempton514th13th+1
2025-09-20Wolverhampton512th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/085/0631/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength24%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/08/202510th150/10%0%0.00
20/09/202512th400/10%0%0.00
06/05/202614th300/10%0%0.00
05/06/20268th66/10%30%+0.30
30/06/20266th66/10%29%+0.29
07/08/20266th33/10%0%0.00
31/08/20269th80/10%20%+0.20