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2

Some Nightmare

9yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 49

Ffos Las · Bridge, Family Run And Proud Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ground-versatile C&D winner. Has been running well in his bid to snap a losing streak stretching back to last summer, getting within ½-length of in-form Macarone at Bath (6f, good to firm) latest. Capable of running another big race off a handy-looking mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 53 · 5f16y Sft 128 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 53 par6/066OR 535 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 52 · 5f16y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 51 · 5f16y GF 131 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 51 par27/066OR 515 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 50 · 6f16y GF 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Bath 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 50 · 5f160y Fm 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 50 par31/076OR 506 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 49 · 6f16y GF 127 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 49 · 6f16y GF 120 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 49 par18/086OR 495 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 48 · 5f16y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 5f160y Goo 124 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 49 par12/096OR 49projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Bath63rd3rd0
2026-08-31Chepstow52nd1st+1
2026-08-18Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-08-09Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-07-31Bath67th7th0
2026-07-16Chepstow53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0616/0718/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20265th9/153%50%-0.03
15/06/20264th18/15%50%+0.45
27/06/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27
16/07/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
31/07/20267th10/382%25%-0.57
09/08/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01
18/08/20262nd11/142%89%+0.47
31/08/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
12/09/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14