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5

A Daughters Love

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 63

Ffos Las · Happy Birthday Alex, From The Bridge Handicap · 2m

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed her progress for current handler with most emphatic success in 10-runner handicap at this course (1½m) last month and posted good second here next time. Exploits have proved mixed since and forecast conditions have to be a concern having finished well held on soft ground here 6 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 45 · 1m2f GF 126 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 45 par27/066OR 456 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 51 · 1m2f GF 121 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m4f51y Std 127 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 54 par14/076OR 544 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 54 · 1m3f211y GF 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 54 · 1m3f209y Gd 124 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 54 par4/086OR 546 @ Ffos Las 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 54 · 1m3f209y Gd 130 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Salisbury 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 64 · 1m6f44y Goo 134 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 64 par21/086OR 646 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 64 · 1m4f6y Goo 134 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 64 par4 @ Ffos Las 21/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m6f Sft 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 63 par21/094OR 63projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Ffos Las46th5th+1
2026-09-10Epsom Downs68th9th−1
2026-08-21Salisbury64th5th−1
2026-08-12Ffos Las62nd3rd−1
2026-08-04Ffos Las61st2nd−1
2026-07-25Ascot414th13th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0625/0721/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/06/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
04/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
14/07/20265th11/142%56%+0.13
25/07/202614th33/10%7%+0.07
04/08/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
12/08/20262nd7/491%80%-0.11
21/08/20264th15/890%40%-0.50
10/09/20268th5/174%46%-0.28
21/09/20266th16/116%38%+0.22