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2

Campeona

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 74

Ffos Las · Happy Birthday Alex, From The Bridge Handicap · 2m

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

98%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Steadily progressive in handicaps on turf this summer, bringing up the hat-trick at Lingfield (2m) in August. Made the frame both starts since, having every chance when third of 6 at Kempton (2m) 3 weeks ago. Current mark does look to demand further progress now, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 27/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f Std 12827/1155 @ Kempton 10/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 1284 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/1246 @ Bath 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m3f137y Fm 125 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Bath 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 61 · 1m6f Fm 132 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 61 par15/076OR 615 @ Newbury 23/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 61 · 2m GF 129 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Lingfield 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 71 · 2m68y Goo 126 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 71 par1/085OR 713 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 73 · 2m1f27y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 74 · 1m7f218y Sta 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 74 par5/094OR 74projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kempton43rd2nd+1
2026-08-16Pontefract32nd0th+2
2026-08-01Lingfield51st1st0
2026-07-23Newbury51st1st0
2026-07-15Bath61st2nd−1
2026-07-01Bath62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/111/071/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/11/20258th80/10%22%+0.22
10/12/20257th100/10%25%+0.25
27/12/20257th150/10%45%+0.45
01/07/20262nd11/893%83%-0.09
15/07/20261st1/499%100%+0.01
23/07/20261st2/799%100%+0.02
01/08/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
16/08/20262nd6/492%75%-0.17
05/09/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26