1
Carthusian
4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 75
Ffos Las · Happy Birthday Alex, From The Bridge Handicap · 2m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Chester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | BHA73 | 4th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA74 | 7th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA73 | 9th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA75 | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA76 | 11th | 14th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 54% | -0.17 |
| 24/05/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 65% | +0.38 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |