No Ordinary Joe
10yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 65
Ffos Las · Happy Birthday Alex, From The Bridge Handicap · 2m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bath | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-09-02 | Kempton | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kempton | 3 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Uttoxeter | 2 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 1 | 13th | 8th | +4 |
| 2026-04-25 | Sandown | 2 | 1st | -3th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.03 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 09/05/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 150/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |