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4

Queenie St Clair

6yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 60

Ffos Las · Happy Birthday Alex, From The Bridge Handicap · 2m

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form on Flat in Ireland and much improved following yard switch over hurdles last season, winning 3 times, latterly at Kelso (2m) in March. Struggled up in grade on final start but returns to this sphere from what could prove a very lenient mark given hurdle exploits. Has gone well fresh.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA103 @ Naas 03/04/2025 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 103 · 2m2f180y Goo 159 · below its mark03/04/2025 · OR 103 par3/04103OR 103C8 @ Bellewstown 12/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 100 · 2m1f40y Gd 159 · below its mark12/04/2025 · OR 100 par4 @ Ffos Las 05/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 108 · 1m7f182y GS 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/06/2025 · OR 108 par5/064OR 1084 @ Wincanton 26/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 105 · 1m7f50y Goo 163 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/12/2025 · OR 105 par3 @ Taunton 03/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 110 · 2m104y Hvy 162 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/02/2026 · OR 110 par3/023OR 1104 @ Fontwell 22/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 109 · 2m1f162y Hvy 156 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/02/2026 · OR 109 par4 @ Newbury 28/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 109 · 2m69y Goo 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 109 par28/024OR 1092 @ Kelso 21/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 119 · 2m51y GS 159 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 119 par1 @ Ayr 18/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 127 · 2m Hvy 146 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 127 par18/041OR 127projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-18Ayr16th1st+4
2026-03-21Kelso21st-3th+3
2026-02-28Newbury45th4th+1
2026-02-22Fontwell41st0th+1
2026-02-03Taunton33rd1st+2
2025-12-26Wincanton41st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0426/1228/0218/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/04/202513th18/15%29%+0.24
12/04/20257th10/147%0%-0.47
05/06/20256th11/271%17%-0.54
26/12/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
03/02/20263rd85/4089%67%-0.22
22/02/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
28/02/20265th2/189%20%-0.69
21/03/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
18/04/20266th12/137%29%-0.08