IvyArcIvyArc
8

A Rose Adaay

4yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 50

Ffos Las · Bridge, For All Family Occasions Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark in first-time cheekpieces in 11-runner handicap at Chepstow (7f, soft) last month, suited by being held up in a strongly-run race. Failed to back that up at Bath last time, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chepstow 21/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 52 · 6f16y GS 127 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 52 par21/056OR 526 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 50 · 1m14y Sft 130 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 49 · 1m14y Gd 129 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 49 par15/066OR 496 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 48 · 7f80y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Chepstow 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 47 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 47 par24/076OR 476 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 47 · 1m14y GF 129 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 46 · 1m2f Gd 135 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 46 par21/086OR 466 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 45 · 7f16y Goo 126 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 50 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 50 par12/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Bath68th8th0
2026-08-31Chepstow61st1st0
2026-08-21Ffos Las68th8th0
2026-08-09Chepstow64th4th0
2026-07-24Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-06-30Ffos Las63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0530/0621/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength5%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20265th33/10%64%+0.64
06/06/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08
15/06/20265th10/147%56%+0.08
30/06/20263rd8/158%71%+0.14
24/07/20263rd15/261%78%+0.17
09/08/20264th16/116%73%+0.57
21/08/20268th8/158%22%-0.36
31/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
12/09/20268th12/137%30%-0.07