IvyArcIvyArc
4

Homeland

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 56

Ffos Las · Bridge, For All Family Occasions Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Underlined good start for new yard by justifying support to when winning 1¼m handicap at this course in July. Undone by 3 lb rise at Lingfield next time, though, and ran about as well as could be expected from 5 lb out of the handicap in 1m event at Chepstow last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readWELL IN
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength72%

What the class read says

Strong hidden class form — has met tougher company than today and the bare form doesn't fully capture it. Should find this level easier. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Beverley 23/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m100y Sft 134 · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 61 par23/096OR 616 @ Wolverhampton 06/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 60 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 60 par6 @ Wolverhampton 25/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 59 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 59 par25/106OR 596 @ Wolverhampton 01/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 57 · 1m1f104y Std 132 · beat its mark01/12/2025 · OR 57 par6 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 1m14y Sft 135 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 55 par6/066OR 556 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m14y Gd 134 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ffos Las 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 54 · 1m2f Goo 137 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 54 par14/076OR 546 @ Lingfield 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 57 · 1m2f GF 137 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 57 par2 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 56 · 1m14y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 56 par31/082OR 56projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Chepstow25th0th+4
2026-07-25Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-07-14Ffos Las61st1st0
2026-06-15Chepstow64th4th0
2026-06-06Chepstow63rd3rd0
2025-12-01Wolverhampton65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/091/1214/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20259th8/158%0%-0.58
06/10/20257th16/116%45%+0.30
25/10/20256th14/126%58%+0.32
01/12/20255th12/137%64%+0.27
06/06/20263rd11/142%75%+0.33
15/06/20264th9/276%67%-0.10
14/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
25/07/20263rd11/1094%60%-0.34
31/08/20265th33/10%73%+0.73