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10

Pebble Dash

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 46

Ffos Las · Bridge, For All Family Occasions Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden who has tended to save his best for Newcastle but ran one of his better races when 3 lengths third of 9 to Equion at this course on latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 49 · 1m6y Std 129 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 49 par20/046OR 496 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 47 · 1m208y Gd 122 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m2y Gd 127 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 45 par6/066OR 456 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 45 · 6f6y Goo 147 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 45 · 7f50y Sft 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 45 par20/066OR 456 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 45 · 1m1f Goo 126 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 45 · 1m5y Sta 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 45 par25/076OR 456 @ Ffos Las 28/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 47 · 1m GS 135 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 46 · 1m Sft 126 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 46 par21/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Ffos Las63rd3rd0
2026-08-28Ffos Las68th8th0
2026-07-25Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-07-19Redcar67th7th0
2026-06-20Ayr66th6th0
2026-06-10Hamilton64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0410/0625/0721/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength86%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/04/202613th15/261%8%-0.53
21/05/20264th50/10%50%+0.50
06/06/20264th20/10%70%+0.70
10/06/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
20/06/20266th14/126%29%+0.02
19/07/20267th33/10%14%+0.14
25/07/20263rd14/126%82%+0.56
28/08/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
21/09/20263rd33/10%75%+0.75