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5

Scarfo

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 55

Ffos Las · Bridge, For All Family Occasions Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Chepstow in June and has pretty much held his form since, though a recent third in a 0-85 event back at Chepstow from 13 lb out of the handicap leaves him on a mark 9 lb above his last winning one.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength64%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 45 · 1m142y Std 126 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 45 par11/056OR 456 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 45 · 1m14y Sft 126 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m14y Gd 128 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 48 par15/066OR 486 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m Gd 131 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 48 · 7f16y GF 128 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 48 par16/076OR 486 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 49 · 1m14y GF 131 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 1m14y GF 119 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 49 par18/086OR 492 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 48 · 1m14y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m Sft 135 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 55 par21/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-08-31Chepstow23rd-2th+4
2026-08-18Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-08-09Chepstow66th6th0
2026-07-16Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-06-23Ffos Las62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0523/0618/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20269th80/10%33%+0.33
06/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
15/06/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
23/06/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23
16/07/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
09/08/20266th11/271%55%-0.17
18/08/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08
31/08/20263rd40/10%87%+0.87
21/09/20264th7/282%63%-0.19