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3

Thestral

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 60

Ffos Las · Bridge, For All Family Occasions Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

A fair 7f scorer (albeit not straightforward) for Hugo Palmer who signed off for that yard with a good third at Wetherby in June. Not in same form on either start for this stable, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 22/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS22/1155 @ Newcastle 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Kempton 25/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/03/2026 · OR 68 par25/035OR 685 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m2y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 7f1y Std 134 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 64 par12/056OR 646 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 65 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 65 · 1m Sta 135 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 65 par8/076OR 656 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 63 · 7f80y Gd 134 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 63 par4/086OR 63projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-04Ffos Las65th5th0
2026-07-08Kempton610th10th0
2026-06-15Wetherby63rd3rd0
2026-05-12Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-04-12Musselburgh510th9th+1
2026-03-25Kempton58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1112/048/074/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength82%

Delivery trend +7.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20255th5/287%56%-0.31
19/12/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
25/03/20268th7/282%13%-0.69
12/04/202610th12/137%0%-0.37
12/05/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
15/06/20263rd10/147%83%+0.36
08/07/202610th28/10%25%+0.25
04/08/20265th14/126%50%+0.24