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10

Arvana Belle

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 47

Ffos Las · Bridge, For All Family Occasions Handicap (Div 2) · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up twice at this course in last 3 starts, including when going with zest on soft ground when second of 9 6 days ago, looking a shade unlucky not to collect having had to wait for a run. Evidently well suited by conditions and this looks a good opportunity to resume winning ways.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 27/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 53 · 1m Fm 128 · below its mark27/04/2026 · OR 53 par27/046OR 536 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 52 · 6f12y Goo 122 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 50 · 5f215y Gd 130 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 50 par9/066OR 506 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 48 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Salisbury 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 47 · 1m Goo 125 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 47 par25/076OR 476 @ Brighton 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 45 · 6f210y Goo 121 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 45 · 7f80y Gd 126 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 45 par21/086OR 456 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 47 · 1m Goo 122 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 47 · 1m Sft 123 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 47 par21/096OR 47projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-09-12Bath65th5th0
2026-08-21Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-08-07Brighton64th4th0
2026-07-25Salisbury65th5th0
2026-07-14Leicester63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0414/0721/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength90%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/04/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
18/05/202611th16/116%9%-0.07
09/06/20267th9/153%0%-0.53
14/07/20263rd11/142%60%+0.18
25/07/20265th17/255%20%-0.35
07/08/20264th9/276%40%-0.36
21/08/20262nd12/137%91%+0.54
12/09/20265th13/266%60%-0.06
21/09/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03