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9

Freedom Bay

4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 48

Ffos Las · Bridge, For All Family Occasions Handicap (Div 2) · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark at Bath in June and ran well to be second of 14 there on good to firm going 15 days ago but hung right and carried head awkwardly when hitting the front. That head carriage is a concern as is today's likely softer going.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chepstow 02/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 48 · 7f16y Sft 128 · beat its mark02/09/2025 · OR 48 par2/096OR 484 @ Wolverhampton 16/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 46 · 1m142y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Wolverhampton 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 46 · 1m4f51y Std 122 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 46 par4/106OR 466 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m75y Goo 126 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 45 · 1m Gd 121 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 45 par13/066OR 456 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 50 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Windsor 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 50 · 1m2f GF 135 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 50 par3/086OR 506 @ Lingfield 27/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 49 · 1m2f Std 135 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 48 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 48 par12/096OR 48projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Bath62nd2nd0
2026-08-27Lingfield68th8th0
2026-08-03Windsor62nd2nd0
2026-07-13Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-06-13Bath61st1st0
2026-04-18Nottingham610th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0918/043/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20254th11/486%40%-0.46
16/09/20255th66/10%20%+0.20
04/10/20257th28/10%25%+0.25
18/04/202610th11/142%0%-0.42
13/06/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
13/07/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04
03/08/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
27/08/20268th9/276%42%-0.35
12/09/20262nd9/276%92%+0.16