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Wellwhatshappenin

4yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 51

Ffos Las · Bridge Llangennech Open Daily Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

35%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Signed off 2025 in good form but ended time for Eddie & Patrick Harty on a low-key note. Tongue tied on second start for this yard and right back on his game when runner-up in a 1m course handicap last week. Back up in trip and he should be a very big factor again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.9
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA56 @ Navan 13/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 56 · 1m2f40y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/07/2025 · OR 56 par13/0756OR 56BHA54 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 54 · 7f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 54 parBHA59 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 59 par5/1159OR 59BHA59 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 59 · 1m Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 59 parBHA60 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Std 142 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 60 par20/0360OR 60BHA58 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 58 · 7f42y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 58 parBHA56 @ Bellewstown 25/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 56 · 7f195y Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 56 par25/0856OR 566 @ Kempton 14/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 52 · 1m Sft 132 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 52 par21/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-09-14Kempton64th4th0
2026-08-25BellewstownBHA568th8th+0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA5812th12th+0
2026-03-20DundalkBHA6013th13th0
2025-12-05DundalkBHA593rd3rd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/075/1225/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength90%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20254th250/10%0%0.00
17/10/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
05/11/20252nd5/174%92%+0.19
05/12/20253rd85/4089%85%-0.04
20/03/202613th9/276%8%-0.69
06/08/202612th28/10%31%+0.31
25/08/20268th22/10%50%+0.50
14/09/20264th3/184%67%-0.18
21/09/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07