8
Activity
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 65
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 08/04/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 30/04/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 25/06/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 26/07/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 29/05/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |