Tulio

2yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 53

Gulfstream · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

40%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength43%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Gulfstream	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-14	Colonial Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-26	Ellis Park	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength75%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/07/2026	8th	66/1	0%	13%	+0.13
14/08/2026	5th	13/2	66%	56%	-0.10
05/09/2026	3rd	13/2	66%	71%	+0.06