3
Imperia Blue
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 75
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |