Mary Marguerite
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 87
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -14.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 6/5 | 94% | 17% | -0.77 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |