4
Thunder Princess
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 77
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 06/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |