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Girvin Star

5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 77

Gulfstream · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gulfstream 30/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 78 · 6f110y Fas 121 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 78 par30/01C8OR 78C8 @ Gulfstream 20/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 7f Fas 122 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 77 parC6 @ Gulfstream 07/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 81 par7/03C6OR 81C5 @ Gulfstream 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Gulfstream 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 77 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 77 par25/04C5OR 77C5 @ Gulfstream 31/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 6f110y Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 74 parC5 @ Gulfstream 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 69 · 7f Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 69 par28/06C5OR 69C6 @ Gulfstream 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 71 · 6f110y Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 71 parC6 @ Gulfstream 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 76 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 76 par23/08C6OR 76projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Gulfstream?6th5th+1
2026-07-18Gulfstream?4th3rd+1
2026-06-28Gulfstream?1st-1th+2
2026-05-31Gulfstream?2nd0th+2
2026-04-25Gulfstream?3rd1st+2
2026-04-04Gulfstream?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/014/0428/0623/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20262nd4/179%67%-0.12
20/02/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
07/03/20265th5/174%20%-0.54
04/04/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
25/04/20263rd20/10%33%+0.33
31/05/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
28/06/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
18/07/20264th20/10%57%+0.57
23/08/20266th16/116%0%-0.16