Kip The Distance

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 88

Gulfstream · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength13%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Colonial Downs	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-07-26	Colonial Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-06	Colonial Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-04-29	Tampa Bay Downs	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-04-17	Tampa Bay Downs	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-03-25	Tampa Bay Downs	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%

▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength42%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
03/01/2026	7th	6/1	68%	0%	-0.68
04/02/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	86%	-0.01
14/02/2026	4th	10/3	82%	67%	-0.16
25/03/2026	6th	4/1	79%	29%	-0.50
17/04/2026	5th	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03
29/04/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	71%	+0.00
06/07/2026	7th	20/1	0%	14%	+0.14
26/07/2026	6th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
06/09/2026	6th	25/1	0%	17%	+0.17