8
Champagne Brunch
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 77
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength11%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 30/08/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |