11
Denver's Alley
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 88
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/12/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |