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Neodera

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 85

Gulfstream · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 26/07/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fas 118 · below its mark26/07/2024 · OR 78 par26/07C6OR 78C6 @ Gulfstream 12/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 76 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 76 parC6 @ Gulfstream 05/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 85 · 5f 118 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 85 par5/10C6OR 85C6 @ Gulfstream 21/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 87 · 5f110y 118 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 87 parC8 @ Gulfstream 12/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 81 · 5f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 81 par12/12C8OR 81C7 @ Gulfstream 15/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 81 · 5f Fas 123 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Gulfstream 19/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 71 · 5f110y Fas 123 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 71 par19/02C8OR 71C7 @ Gulfstream 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 72 · 5f Fm 126 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 72 parC6 @ Gulfstream 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 5f Fm 124 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 75 par31/08C6OR 75projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Gulfstream?1st1st0
2026-08-01Gulfstream?1st2nd−1
2026-02-19Gulfstream?2nd4th−2
2026-01-15Gulfstream?6th7th−1
2025-12-12Gulfstream?1st3rd−2
2025-11-21Gulfstream?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0721/1119/0231/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20243rd10/147%67%+0.19
12/07/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
05/10/20256th9/153%17%-0.36
21/11/20256th12/137%0%-0.37
12/12/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
15/01/20266th4/179%0%-0.79
19/02/20262nd6/492%80%-0.12
01/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
31/08/20261st11/893%100%+0.07