Ninia

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 92

Gulfstream · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength24%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.4

Today:

Class gap: +0.1

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-04	Del Mar	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-02-09	Will Rogers Downs	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6
2025-11-14	Remington Park	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6
2025-08-23	Remington Park	?	1st	2nd	−1	8.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/08/2025	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18
14/11/2025	3rd	10/3	82%	75%	-0.07
09/02/2026	1st	8/11	96%	100%	+0.04
04/09/2026	5th	25/1	0%	43%	+0.43