7
My Foolish Notion
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 66
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 8-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |