Pardo

3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 78

Gulfstream · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-14	Gulfstream	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-05-22	Gulfstream	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2025-10-11	Gulfstream	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength32%

Delivery trend -11.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/10/2025	1st	7/4	91%	100%	+0.09
22/05/2026	5th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
14/06/2026	5th	10/1	47%	33%	-0.14