3
Smooth An Easy
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 78
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |