1
Tonytone
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |