3
Always True
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength98%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |