4
Brigade Commander
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 96
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 21/12/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 18/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 71% | -0.24 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |