Arabia Wild
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 85
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-05 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |