1
Commendatore
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 74
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength79%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 18/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |