El Orejon
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |