IvyArcIvyArc
2

Nice Try Riley

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 72

Gulfstream · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 15/02/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS15/02C6C6 @ Gulfstream 05/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/04/2025 · OR 86 parC9 @ Saratoga 14/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 77 · 7f Slo 119 · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 77 par14/08C9OR 77C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 14/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 76 · 6f110y Fas 121 · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 76 parC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 79 · 6f 121 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 79 par11/10C9OR 79C9 @ Gulfstream 02/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 1m Fas 123 · below its mark02/01/2026 · OR 82 parC9 @ Gulfstream 12/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 1m Fas 123 · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 71 par12/02C9OR 71C8 @ Gulfstream 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 70 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 70 par18/07C8OR 70projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Gulfstream?1st1st0
2026-02-12Gulfstream?1st2nd−1
2026-01-02Gulfstream?2nd3rd−1
2025-10-11Belmont At The Big A?5th6th−1
2025-09-14Belmont At The Big A?3rd4th−1
2025-08-14Saratoga?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0214/0912/0218/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/02/20257th33/10%25%+0.25
05/04/202510th25/10%10%+0.10
14/08/20256th8/158%29%-0.29
14/09/20253rd10/147%60%+0.13
11/10/20255th9/276%43%-0.33
02/01/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14
12/02/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
18/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13