Rule Seventy Six
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 31/08/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 43% | -0.48 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 73% | -0.14 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |