3
Aegon Targaryen
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 93
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/01/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 18/04/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |