6
Gus Swayze
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 79
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength9%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 36% | -0.40 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |