7
Justin Smiles
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 92
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/02/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |