9
Nickel C
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 90
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |