Bonsai Warrior
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Penn National | ? | 5th | -3th | +7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |