5
Let Fly
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/08/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |