Hard Swing
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 61
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/06/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |