4
Mr Skinny
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 76
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |