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Magnificent Rags

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 73

Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Ellis Park 14/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 78 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark14/07/2025 · OR 78 par14/07C9OR 78C9 @ Ellis Park 23/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 77 · 7f 124 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 77 parC9 @ Churchill Downs 12/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m110y Fas 124 · below its mark12/09/2025 · OR 80 par12/09C9OR 80C9 @ Churchill Downs 29/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 1m110y 124 · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 81 parC7 @ Aqueduct 14/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 85 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 85 par14/02C7OR 85C5 @ Mountaineer 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 90 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 90 parC5 @ Mountaineer 09/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 85 · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 85 par9/06C5OR 85C8 @ Colonial Downs 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Charles Town 08/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 85 · 1m110y Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 85 par8/08C5OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Charles Town?7th4th+3
2026-07-10Colonial Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-06-09Mountaineer?2nd-1th+3
2026-05-05Mountaineer?2nd-1th+3
2026-02-14Aqueduct?7th6th+1
2025-10-29Churchill Downs?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0729/109/068/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength56%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20252nd11/271%90%+0.19
23/08/20256th9/276%17%-0.60
12/09/20256th4/179%44%-0.35
29/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
14/02/20267th33/10%14%+0.14
05/05/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
09/06/20262nd7/491%86%-0.05
10/07/20263rd13/266%60%-0.06
08/08/20267th10/147%0%-0.47