Paynted Lion

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 67

Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-17	Delaware Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-08	Laurel Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-04-17	Laurel Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-03-29	Laurel Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-03-06	Laurel Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-02-27	Laurel Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength70%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/11/2025	2nd	10/1	47%	83%	+0.36
28/11/2025	1st	7/1	63%	100%	+0.37
04/02/2026	5th	16/1	16%	33%	+0.18
27/02/2026	2nd	25/1	0%	67%	+0.67
06/03/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	60%	+0.44
29/03/2026	5th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
17/04/2026	6th	33/1	0%	29%	+0.29
08/05/2026	4th	9/1	53%	25%	-0.28
17/09/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	71%	+0.24