5
Flamenco Star
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 73
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2024 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 14/06/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 24/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 89% | -0.08 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/5 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/09/2026 | 12th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |