Italiano Kid
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 78
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 19/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 20/08/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |